Council · Agent 01 · Weight 20% · Round 05
Sector rotation map
Level is relative strength against SPY over three months. Momentum compares the last month's pace with the three-month average pace. Adjusted closing data through 14 October 2026.
Where the leadership sits
level = 3-month relative strength · momentum = 1-month pace vs 3-month average| ETF | Sector | RS 1m | RS 3m | RS 6m | Quadrant | Dir. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLE | Energy | +1.30 | +16.10 | +11.20 | Weakening | ↘ |
| XLV | Health Care | +2.25 | +5.02 | +7.41 | Leading | ↗ |
| XLK | Technology | +1.86 | +4.50 | +14.92 | Leading | ↗ |
| XLP | Consumer Staples | +1.57 | −1.77 | −2.63 | Improving | ↗ |
| XLC | Communication Services | −4.28 | −3.96 | −14.05 | Lagging | ↘ |
| XLB | Materials | −3.44 | −4.59 | −11.79 | Lagging | ↘ |
| XLF | Financials | −5.52 | −6.19 | −4.77 | Lagging | ↘ |
| XLY | Consumer Discretionary | −1.06 | −7.33 | −14.27 | Improving | ↗ |
| XLI | Industrials | −2.62 | −9.53 | −11.24 | Improving | ↗ |
| XLU | Utilities | −0.15 | −10.06 | −16.83 | Improving | ↗ |
| XLRE | Real Estate | −4.64 | −10.44 | −12.02 | Lagging | ↘ |
Cycle phaseIncoherent transition
Cycle coherence4 risk-off · 2 risk-on
Offense / defense🟡 Split
Leading sectorsXLK · XLV
Composition divergenceHigh
Confirmation ratios
four risk-off · three neutral · two risk-on| Ratio | What it measures | 3m | 1m | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLY / XLP | Offense vs defense | −5.66% | −2.59% | Risk-off |
| IWM / SPY | Small vs large | −10.43% | −6.57% | Risk-off |
| IWF / IWD | Growth vs value | +0.34% | +2.88% | Neutral |
| SPHB / SPLV | High beta vs low vol | +5.39% | +1.61% | Risk-on |
| RSP / SPY | Equal vs cap weight | −3.68% | −2.32% | Risk-off |
| SOXX / SPY | Semiconductors | −4.66% | +2.22% | Risk-off |
| XLI / XLU | Industrials vs utilities | +0.59% | −2.47% | Neutral |
| Copper / Gold | Real economy vs fear | +2.05% | +9.50% | Risk-on |
| HYG / LQD | High yield vs investment grade | +0.99% | −0.44% | Neutral |
The contradiction remains the result. Technology, Health Care, high beta and copper improved, but equal weight, small caps, Financials and offense versus defense stayed weak. The FRED high-yield spread widened to 3.16% even as the HYG/LQD price ratio remained neutral. The rotation score stays at −2: sector count repaired, but the map does not meet the seven-of-nine coherence threshold for a clean cycle signal.