Council · Round 05 · Horizon 29 October 2026
Outlook & risk
CPI has reset the macro debate, but not the price range. The next decision window runs through earnings season, the 27–28 October FOMC meeting and the Q3 GDP and September PCE releases the following morning.
Critical windows
official release calendars · all times ET| Date | Event | Agents affected | Importance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 15 Oct · 8:30 | September PPI + advance retail sales | Macro · Earnings · Quant | Critical |
| Fri 16 Oct · 9:15 | Industrial production and capacity utilization | Macro · Rotation | Medium |
| 15–29 Oct | Q3 earnings season accelerates | Earnings · Sentiment · Quant | High |
| 27–28 Oct | FOMC meeting and press conference | Macro · Quant · Gann | Critical |
| Thu 29 Oct · 8:30 | Q3 GDP advance estimate + September PCE | Macro · Earnings | High |
| Tue 3 Nov | US midterm elections + September JOLTS | Gann · Macro · Sentiment | High |
September CPI rose 0.6% month over month and 3.7% year over year, while payroll growth slowed to 29,000. The 10-year yield remains at 5.21% and high-yield spreads at 3.16%. The FOMC on 28 October and GDP/PCE on 29 October will decide whether strong earnings can continue to offset the inflation and duration shock.
Probability matrix
horizon to 29 Oct 2026 · levels in SPYRound 04 forecast scorecard
interim through 14 Oct · horizon ends 28 Oct| Agent | Published forecast | Status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Council | 25% bull / 40% neutral / 35% bear to 28 Oct | Pending | SPY remains inside the neutral range. Macro is bearish, breadth repaired and earnings are positive; the FOMC horizon has not closed. |
| Quant | 754–779 through CPI as the 45% case | On track | Every close through CPI stayed inside the range. The two-close bullish trigger above 766.99 fired, but there was no close above 779.37. |
| Rotation | Growth leadership remains narrow | Correct | Technology remains Leading, but RSP/SPY and IWM/SPY are still negative and Communication Services fell to Lagging. |
| Breadth | Index vulnerable until participation repairs | Improving | Above-50-day breadth recovered from 21.4% to 35.8% but remains below the 40% invalidation level. |
| Macro | Duration pressure into the FOMC | Supported | The 10-year is 5.21%, HY OAS 3.16% and CPI 3.7% year over year. Neither escalation nor invalidation has fired. |
| Earnings | Positive revision cushion into reporting season | Supported | FactSet reports 29.6% blended Q3 growth with 84% of the first 19 reporters beating EPS estimates. |
| Wyckoff | Test 754–758 before resolution | Invalidated | SPY closed above 775.14 and reached 781.62 before returning to range; the published invalidation fired. |
| Sentiment | Pessimism cushions the first support test | Triggered | The 100-day held and breadth improved. AAII bears then normalized from 46.5% to 39.0%. |
| Gann | Range break in CPI or FOMC window | Pending | CPI produced a decline but no closing break. The 27–28 October FOMC window remains open. |
| Elliott | Complex correction between 749.60 and 779.37 | On track | The 781.62 intraday high did not produce a close outside the published range. |
Standing alerts
High-yield OAS reached 3.16%, up 45 basis points in a month. The HYG/LQD price ratio remains neutral, so official credit spreads are warning without a fully coherent market-price confirmation.
The official 10-year yield is 5.21%, the real 10-year 2.88% and September CPI 3.7% year over year. Long-duration equities remain exposed to repricing around the FOMC and PCE.
Breadth repaired but remains incomplete: 58.2% of members are above the 20-day, 35.8% above the 50-day and 51.2% above the 200-day. The short and long horizons disagree.
Technology and Health Care lead, but equal weight lagged SPY by 2.32% over one month and small caps by 6.57%. The cap-weight channel can still mask distribution.
SPY ended just above the 50-day after failing to hold the 781.62 high. The 757.23–768.57 support band and 781.62 ceiling now define the range.
Sixteen new 52-week highs exceeded ten lows, median one-week performance reached +1.81% and Staples, Discretionary, Industrials and Utilities all moved to Improving.
Early Q3 earnings growth is 29.6% with an 84% EPS beat rate. Strong fundamentals give the index a path to absorb the rate shock if credit and yields stabilize.
Data protocol — round 05
Route taken: adjusted daily prices for 36 market symbols were downloaded from Yahoo Finance and stored with source URLs; rates, curves, spreads and liquidity came from official FRED series. The BLS CPI release supplied September inflation, the BLS employment release supplied payrolls, FactSet supplied the early earnings scorecard and AAII supplied sentiment. Breadth was calculated from adjusted prices for the current S&P 500 roster, with 500 of 503 names read.
Missing or limited, declared rather than inferred:
- Current Cboe put/call averages were not obtained; NAAIM remains paywalled.
- Not obtained: CFTC COT, dealer gamma, insiders, short interest, implied correlation, equity-bond correlation and the Kitchin cycle anchor.
- Breadth uses the current S&P 500 roster; FDXF, HONA and VYLR lack 200 sessions and were excluded. Historical comparisons carry survivorship bias.
- Yahoo Finance is a reproducible market-data endpoint, not an exchange feed. Official macro series take precedence where both exist.
Checks run in code: weights sum to 1.00; weighted sum = −1.20; Council score = 50 + (−1.20 × 5) = 44.00; probabilities sum to 100%; all 36 market series are dated 14 October; adjusted closes were used for relative strength; breadth coverage = 99.4%.